Der Brand- und Katastrophenschutz für’s Depot? – Rosenbauer International AG
Die heutige Unternehmensvorstellung und -analyse dreht sich um die Rosenbauer International AG, welches ein Österreichischer Hersteller von Feuerwehrfahrzeugen ist. Interessant dabei ist, dass nur ca 42% der Umsätze aus Europa stammen und insgesamt nur 7% (2015) aus dem Heimatmarkt Österreich. Alleine diese Zahlen unterstreichen bereits die Internationalität des Unternehmens. Ich für meinen Teil, hatte eine andere Vorstellung von diesem Geschäft. Meine Erwartung war, dass es für jedes Land kleine Manufakturen gibt, die die Feuerwehrfahrzeuge herstellen. Ich wurde eines Besseren belehrt 🙂
Schauen wir uns nun im ersten Schritt die finanzielle Situation des Unternehmens an. In diesem Diagramm sind die Gewinne auf der primären Y-Achse (links) und die Umsätze auf der sekundären Y-Achse dargestellt.
Wir sehen, dass der Umsatz mit einer durchschnittlichen Rate von 7,8% pro Jahr wächst. In der Finanzkrise gab es einmal ein Jahr mit einem erheblichen Umsatzrückganges. Ebenso war der Umsatz im Jahr 2017 leicht rückläufig. Nichtsdestotrotz kann die Umsatzentwicklung als stabil betrachtet werden. Die Entwicklung des EBITs bzw der Earnings ist dem gegenüber ein wenig volatiler. Wenn man zu den beiden Datenreihen jedoch einen Trend ermittelt, wird sichtbar, dass das EBIT und die Earnings
über die Zeit positives Wachstum aufweisen . Da die Umsätze stärker wachsen als die Gewinne wirkt sich das negativ auf die Margen aus:
Die Quintessenz ist, dass die Margen seit 2006 noch nie wirklich überragend waren. Viel mehr würde ich diese als eher schwach ansehen. Im Jahr 2017 erreichten diese zudem einen absoluten Tiefpunkt in dem betrachteten Zeitraum. Einen negativen Effekt auf den Umsatz im Jahr 2017 kam daher, dass durch den niedrigen Ölpreis und anhaltende Konflikte in einigen Regionen der Welt das Ausliefervolumen zurückging. Dies schlug natürlich auf die Margen durch. Einen zusätzlicher Effekt, der auf die Margen drückte war, dass die Herstellung in einigen Stellen von großvolumigen Aufträgen auf Einzelaufträge umgestellt werden musste.
Neben den Margen schauen wir uns im nächsten Schritt unterschiedliche Rentabilitätskennzahlen an.
Im Wesentlichen bestätigt das Diagramm die vorher getätigten Aussagen bringt jedoch eine weitere Dimension hinein. Mein erster Gedanke war als ich gesehen habe, dass die Eigenkapitalrendite seit 2010 durchgehend fallend war, war dass in dem Zeitraum sicher die Eigenkapitalquote gestiegen ist und dies auch einen negativen Effekt auf die EK-Renditen hat. Leider sieht man in dem Diagramm, dass dies nicht der Fall ist. Die Rosenbauer International AG habe eine relativ stabile EK-Quote bei fallenden Eigenkapitalrenditen. Dies liegt darin begründet, dass die Earnings in dem Zeitraum ebenfalls rückläufig waren.
Wir haben nun also festgestellt, dass das Unternehmen zwar durchweg Gewinne macht bei steigenden Umsätzen, die Rentabilität aber eher schwach anzusehen ist. Wie sieht denn aber die Finanzierung des Unternehmens aus? Im vorherigen Diagramm haben wir bereits gesehen, dass die EK-Quote ungefähr bei 33% in 2017 angekommen ist. In diesem Kontext sollte jedoch auch ein Blick auf die CashFlows geworfen werden. Meiner Meinung nach ist diese Perspektive die viel wichtigere. Der Free CashFlow berechnet sich wie folgt: Operativer CashFlow – Investitions-CashFlow (bereinigt um Firmenübernahmen).
Auf den ersten Blick fällt direkt auf, dass die CashFlows deutlich volatiler sind als die Gewinne. Dies scheint daran zu liegen, dass bis 2017 die Umsätze nach der PoC-Methode (percentage of Completion) realisiert wurden. Dies hat zur Folge, dass Umsätze gebucht werden wofür es aber noch keine Einzahlungen gibt. Diese würden dann als Forderung aus Lieferungen und Leistungen erfasst – wären somit GuV- aber nicht Cashwirksam. Darüber hinaus ist der Effekt aus der Veränderung von Vorräten auf den operativen Cashflow nicht zu vernachlässigen. Aufgrund dessen hat man naturbedingt eine hohe Schwankungsbreite zwischen den Perioden. Es wird deutlich, dass der operative CashFlow einen positiven Trend hat, somit über den Zeitraum steigt. Weiterhin sieht man, dass die Ausschüttung im Durchschnitt durch den bereinigten FreeCashflow gezahlt werden können. Demnach sehe ich die Cashflows als solide an und die Dividendenpolitik als sehr behutsam. Es wird darauf geachtet, dass lediglich eine Dividende gezahlt wird, die auch langfristig finanzierbar ist.
Wir haben nun bereits gesehen, dass die EK-Quote bei circa 33% liegt. Das bedeutet im Umkehrschluss, dass die Fremdkapitalquote bei 67% liegt. Daraus folgernd lässt sich selbstverständlich die Frage stellen wie tragfähig die Schulden des Unternehmens sind. Hierzu werden wir im ersten Schritt einen Blick auf das Gearing. Im Jahr 2017 hat Rosenbauer ein Gearing von 89%. Errechnet wird das Gearing wie folgt: (Finanzverbindlichkeiten – Liquide Mittel) / Eigenkapital. Das Gearing ist im Geschäftsbericht mit 77% angegeben, ich bereinige das Eigenkapital jedoch um die Anteile ohne beherrschenden Einfluss. Die Maßnahme könnte man gerne diskutieren. Was haltet ihr davon? Welches EK würdet ihr verwenden? Ein Gearing von 89% bedeutet demnach, dass die Netto-Finanzverbindlichkeiten 89% des Wertes des Eigenkapitals ausmachen. Dieser Wert ist als sehr hoch einzustufen und ist keinesfalls ein gutes Zeichen. Welche Wege gäbe es nun das Gearing zu verbessern?
- Eigenkapital erhöhen
- Finanzverbindlichkeiten abbauen
- Liqiudität erhöhen
- Eine Kombination von 1 – 3
Schauen wir uns dazu einmal die Liquidität etwas genauer an:
Ich habe mir in letzter Zeit das ein oder andere Unternehmen angesehen und häufig eine (für mich) zu hohe Liquidität festgestellt. Hier hingegen ist sie mir ein wenig zu niedrig. Für die Liquidität 1. Grades sehe ich gerne einen Wert zwischen 10-20%. Dieser wird in der Zeitreihe leider nie erreicht. bei der Liquidität 2. Grades sehe ich einen Zielkorridor von 80-100% und bei der Liquidität 3. Grades von 130-160%. Daraus folgernd sehe ich bei der Liquidität durchaus Handlungsbedarf diese zu erhöhen was demnach einen positiven Effekt auf das Gearing hat.
Die Finanzverbindlichkeiten verharren, trotz hohen Investitionen in Standorte, seit dem Jahr 2014 auf einem hohen Niveau. Dahingehend würde ich mir wünschen, dass die Finanzverbindlichkeiten in Zukunft gesenkt werden. Auch dieses hätte – neben der Erhöhung der Liqiudität – einen positiven Effekt auf das Gearing und würde die finanzielle Stabilität erhöhen. Dieses wird wohl auch gemäß des Geschäftsberichtes 2017 für 2018 eintreten, da sich das Investitionsvolumen reduzieren wird.
Im Zuge der Analyse der Liquidität ist mir weiterhin aufgefallen, das sich das Zahlungsverhalten der Kunden verschlechtert hat. Die Debitorenlaufzeit erhöhte sich von ~20 Tagen im Jahre 2006 auf 60 Tage im Jahre 2017. Dies bedeutet, dass die Kunden heute erst nach 60 Tagen ihre Rechnung bezahlen. Die Kreditorenlaufzeit bleibt hingegen nahezu konstant (~15 Tage in 2006 und ~19 Tage in 2017). Die Kreditorenlaufzeit beschreibt die Dauer die Rosenbauer benötigt und seine Rechnungen zu bezahlen. Im Idealfall braucht man selbst länger die Rechnungen zu bezahlen, als es die Kunden brauchen. Dies wäre sozusagen ein zinsloses Darlehen.
Das Unternehmen rechnet damit, dass sich der Markt für Feuerwehrtechnik stabil entwickeln wird. Ich rechne daher dementsprechend damit, dass sich der Umsatz mit dem durchschnittlichen Wachstum der letzten Jahre weiterentwickeln wird. Darauf aufbauend, werden weiterhin Effizienzen gehoben was in 2018 dazu führen wird, dass das EBIT und die operative Marge deutlich über der in 2017 liegen wird. Dazu habe ich mir eine geschätzte GuV für das Jahr 2018 aufgestellt:
Wir sehen, dass der Umsatz leicht steigt und durch die erhöhten Effizienzen die Margen überproportional profitieren. Gemäß der Anzahl der Aktien erhalten wir dann einen geschätzten Jahresüberschuss von 7€ pro Aktie.
Grundsätzlich bin ich ein Freund der Discounted Cashflow Methode. Leider tue ich mich bei dem Unternehmen schwer einen freien Cashflow zu schätzen, da die Cashflows über die Zeit zu stark schwanken. Daher habe ich aus den Chasflows der Vergangenheit einen validen Cashflow geschätzt. dieses habe ich für die DCF-Methode mit 15.000Tsd € angenommen. Weiterhin rechne ich mit Eigenkapitalkosten von 7%, einem jährlichen Wachstum von 4% und einer ewigen Rente von 3%. Daher komme ich auf folgende Tabelle:
Was sind die Erkenntnisse aus der Tabelle?
- Das Unternehmen hat einen geschätzten Gesamtwert (abgezinst) von 422.177T€
- Pro Aktie entspricht das einem Wert von 62€
- Bei einem aktuellen Wert von 44€ liegt mein Schätzwert 41% über dem aktuellen Wert
Neben der DCF-Methode gibt es noch weitere Möglichkeiten den Unternehmenswert zu schätzen. Dazu gehört die „Faire KGV-Methode“.
Für das Unternehmen habe ich ein durschnittliches KGV von 13,5 für die Jahre von 2006 – 2017 ermittelt. Ich selbst habe ein KGV von 15 als fair für das Unternehmen angenommen (siehe folgende Tabelle).
Um diese beiden Perspektiven zu verbinden habe ich entsprechend den Durchschnitt genommen ((13,5 + 15) / 2): 14,25. Multipliziert man nun dieses KGV Wert mit dem geschätzten Gewinn pro Aktie aus dem vorherigen Kapitel (7€) erhält man einen Wert pro Aktie von 99,75€. Dieser Wert liegt 126% über dem aktuellen Börsenwert von 44€. Dies wäre eine exorbitante Unterbewertung. Wie tief dürfte denn der Gewinn Pro Aktie sinken, damit immer noch eine Unterbewertung von 30% vorliegen würde. Wir rechnen also 44 * 1,3 = 57,2. Dies wäre der Unternehmenswert der erreicht werden muss. Dividieren wir diesen Wert durch das faire KGV 57,2 / 14,25 = 4,01€ Gewinn pro Aktie. Wenn wir einen Blick auf die Entwicklung der Jahresübeschüsse pro Aktie in den letzten Jahren:
In der Tabelle sieht man, dass ein Jahresüberschuss je Aktie von 4,01€ schon häufig in der Vergangenheit übertroffen wurde. Dies ist somit möglich und durch gestiegene Umsätze und durch in Aussicht gestellte höhere Margen würde ich höhere Gewinne je Aktie nicht nur für möglich halten sondern auch als wahrscheinlich ansehen.
Für dieses Unternehmen habe ich nun in beiden eingesetzten Methoden zur Bestimmung des Unternehmenswertes einen Wert deutlich über dem aktuellen Börsenwert ermittelt.
- Aktueller Kurs: 44€
- DCF: 62€
- Faires KGV
- Mit geschätztem JÜ für 2018 (optimistisch): 99,75€
- Mit geschätztem JÜ für 2018 (eher konservativ): 57,2€
Dieser Artikel dient zur Erläuterung von Value Investing Prinzipien am Beispiel eines Unternehmens. Er stellt keine Anlageberatung dar. Die Investition in Wertpapiere ist mit Risiken verbunden, die bis zum Totalverlust des eingesetzten Kapitals führen kann. Schaut Euch dazu bitte auch meinen Haftungsausschluss an.
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25 March 2014. Simonite Tom 15 August 2014
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pool. Though Bitcoin futures market since Mt Gox Bitcoin heist was an inside job.
Look ahead to it contribute frequently drop to less than the whole market value for freshly mined.
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