Dividenden oder Aktienrückkäufe – was ist der bessere Weg?
In den letzten Jahren habe ich häufig Diskussionen verfolgt, die sich darum ranken, ob Aktienrückkäufe besser für den Investor seien als Dividenden. Oftmals wurde das Argument angeführt, dass Aktienrückkäufe ein Investment in das Unternehmen selbst und bei Dividenden das Geld einfach weg sei. In diesem Beitrag möchte ich aufzeigen welche Auswirkungen die beiden Formen der Ausschüttungen wirklich auf das Unternehmen haben. Steuerliche Themen werde ich in diesem Beitrag ausklammern.
Nehmen wir an, wir untersuchen dabei die fiktive Value-Investor.guru AG welche die folgende, vereinfachte Bilanz aufweist.
Diese besteht lediglich aus 100.000€ Cash auf der Aktivseite und folglich aus 100.000€ Eigenkapital auf der Passivseite. Darüber hinaus gibt es 100.000 Aktien die jeweils 1€ Wert sind. Das Unternehmen hat im angelaufenen Geschäftsjahr 0,5€ Gewinn gemacht und möchte nun 0,1€ pro Aktie als Gewinnausschüttung an die Anteilseigner ausschütten. Dazu gibt es nun im Wesentlichen drei Möglichkeiten:
- Rückkauf ohne Vernichtung der Aktien
- Rückkauf mit Vernichtung der Aktien
Das Unternehmen wird den genannten Betrag als Dividende an die Anteilseigner ausschütten. Welchen Effekt hätte dies auf die Bilanz des Unternehmens?
Wir sehen, die Gesamtdividende beträgt 10.000€, was dazu führt, dass sich der Cashbestand um eben diesen Betrag reduziert.Da die Bilanz immer ausgeglichen sein muss, reduziert sich das Eigenkapital eben um den gleichen Betrag.
2. Aktienrückkauf ohne Vernichtung der Aktien
Statt einer Dividende zu zahlen, wird das Unternehmen für den Gesamtbetrag von 10.000€ (100.000 Aktien * 0,1€) Aktien an der Börse zurückkaufen. Dies hat den folgenden Effekt auf die Bilanz des Unternehmens:
Man sieht, dass auf der Aktivseite der Bilanz ein Aktivtausch erfolgt. Das Unternehmen hat Geld gegen Aktien getauscht, die nun als Wertpapiere bilanziert werden. Demzufolge gibt es keinen Effekt auf das Eigenkapital, da sich die Aktiva nicht verringert haben. Das Unternehmen hat demnach die selbe Bilanzsumme wie vor der Gewinnausschüttung.
3. Aktienrückkauf mit Vernichtung der Aktien
Das Unternehmen kauft wie in Punkt 2 die Aktien an der Börse zurück. Statt diese selbst zu halten werden diese aber nun vernichtet und das Grundkapital entsprechend verringert. Die Bilanz sieht man dieser Transaktion wie folgt aus:
Erweiterung der Betrachtung
Nachdem die drei möglichen Fälle nun dargestellt sind, lässt sich festhalten das Variante eins und drei den gleichen bilanziellen Effekt aufweisen (Das Cash reduziert sich um 10.000€ und dem folgend auch das Eigenkapital. Variante zwei lässt den Anschein zu, dass dies das vorteilhafteste Möglichkeit ist, da sich die Bilanz nicht verkürzt.
Gibt es möglicherweise noch weitere Sichten auf diesen Sachverhalt?
Wir haben in dem Fall schon gesehen, dass es 100.000 Aktien gibt und einen Gewinn von 50.000€ (100.00 Aktien * 0,5€Gewinn). Die Marktkapitalisierung ist in diesem Fall 100.000€ (eine Aktie = 1€). Setzen wir die beiden Zahlen ins Verhältnis erhalten wir ein Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis von 2 (100.000€/ 50.000€).
Variante eins und zwei haben auf diese Betrachtung keinerlei Auswirkung, da sich an der Aktienanzahl nichts ändert. In der Variante drei jedoch wird die Anzahl der Aktien um 10.000 reduziert. Dies bedeutet, dass sich der Gewinn von 50.000 nicht mehr auf 100.000 Aktien verteilt sondern nur noch auf 90.000. Dies hat den Effekt, dass das KGV von 2 auf 1,8 sinkt und der Gewinn pro Aktie von 0,5€ auf 0,56€ steigt. Der Aktieninhaber hat somt einen höheren Anteil am Gewinn.
Nun wird es Zeit für eine Bewertung. Die Vor- und Nachteile der drei Varianten sind in der folgenden Tabelle zusammengefasst.
Ich persönlich bin von Variante zwei kein Freund, auch fielen mir in dem Kontext dieses Artikels keine wirklichen Vorteile dieser Variante ein. An Variante drei gefällt mir sehr gut, dass die zurückgekauften Aktien eingezogen werden, was bedeutet, dass sich der Unternehmenswert und die zukünftige Gewinne auf weniger Aktien verteilen, „mein“ Anteil daran also steigt und somit der Aktienkurs jeder Aktie steigen müsste. Leider bekomme ich in dieser Variante kein Geld direkt ausgezahlt, sondern könnte meine Aktien nur verkaufen um daran zu partizipieren, was ich im Zweifel aber nicht will. In der ersten Variante habe ich den Vorteil, dass ich direkt Geld ausgezahlt bekomme, welches ich für meine Zwecke verwenden kann. Basierend auf diesen Gedanken, komme ich für mich zu dem Schluss, dass eine Kombination aus Variante ein und drei am vorteilhaftesten wäre. Mir schwebt eine Quote von 50/50 vor. 50% der Ausschüttungssumme werden als Dividende ausbezahlt und 50% werden in den Aktienrückkauf investiert.
Wie steht ihr zu dem Thema? Habe ich wichtige Themen / Fakten nicht berücksichtigt? Wie steht ihr zu dem Thema „Aussschüttung ja/nein“?
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