Jungfraubahn – geht die Aktie so steil wie der Jungfraujoch?
Die erste Unternehmensvorstellung in diesem Blog wird sich um das Unternehmen Jungfraubahn Holding AG drehen.
|Sitz||CH – Interlaken|
Die Jungfraubahn-Gruppe ist das bedeutendste Bergbahn-Unternehmen der Schweiz, welches auch im Tourismus eine führende Rolle einnimmt. Das prominenteste Angebot des Unternehmens ist die Bergbahn, die mitfahrende auf den 3454m hohen Jungfraujoch befördern. Darüber hinaus betreibt das Unternehmen weitere Bergbahnen in der Jungfrau Region, Wintersportanlagen, Gastronomiebetriebe, ein Wasserkraftwerk, Läden und Parkplätze.
Im ersten Schritt werden wir einen Blick auf die Umsatz- und Ergebnisentwicklung welche im folgenden Diagramm dargestellt ist:
Wir sehen, dass der Umsatz nahezu stetig entlang des durchschnittlichen Umsatzwachstums steigt (Die Umsatzkurve entspricht nahezu der Umsatztrendlinie). Das gleiche Bild haben wir beim EBIT und auch bei den Earnings. Im Durchschnitt ist der Umsatz mit guten 4% – nicht viel aber stetig – in dem betrachteten Zeitraum gestiegen. Die durchschnittlichen Steigerungsraten für das EBIT war 7,5%, respektive 7,3% für die Earnings. Bedeutet im Umkehrschluss, dass sich die Margen über den Zeitraum verbessert haben, da die Gewinne stärker wuchsen als die Umsätze. Diese Aussage sehen wir auch in der folgenden Tabelle bestätigt.
In dem nachfolgenden Diagramm sehen wir die Rentabilität über den Zeitraum:
Das stetige, verlässliche Bild, welches wir aus der Umsatz- und Ergebnisentwicklung mitgenommen haben verfestigt sich hier weiter. Die Rentabilitätskennzahlen sind auf einem stabilen und leicht steigenden Kurs. Wenngleich die Rentabilität nicht allzu hoch ist (Den Grund hierfür sehen wir an späterer Stelle). Für die Periode 2016 habe ich für die dargestellten Kennzahlen keine Werte ermittelt, da ich immer das durchschnittliche Kapital verwende (bei dem ROE demnach dann E / ((EKVJ + EKLJ) / 2). Ich halte dies für sinnvoller, da der Gewinn ja eine Stromgröße ist (Gewinne werden das gesamte Jahr über erwirtschaftet, das EK aber eine Stichtagsgröße (bspw Ende des Jahres)). Für 2005 habe ich schlichtweg keine Daten erfasst. Daher habe ich keine Werte in der Periode. Was wir in der Darstellung sehr schön sehen:
- Die Eigenkapitalrendite (ROE) ist höher als die Gesamtkapitalrendite (ROA)
- Die Rendite auf das eingesetzte Kapital ist aber noch mal höher als die EK-Rendite.
Die höhere Rendite des ROIC gegenüber dem ROE liegt darin begründet, das von dem gesamten eingesetzten Kapital (EK, verzinsliches FK) die Zahlungsmittel abgezogen werden, denn diese sind ja prinzipiell für den Geschäftsbetrieb nicht notwendig. Da das Unternehmen eine sehr hohe Liquidität hat, wird der Nenner kleiner und somit das Ergebnis höher.
Im nächsten Schritt betrachten wir die Cashflows, die das Unternehmen erwirtschaftete. Diese sind im folgenden Diagramm dargestellt:
Aus dieser Grafik können wir dreierlei Dinge ablesen
- Der operative Cashflow steigt kontinuierlich
- Der Free Cashflow war in allen bis auf einer Periode (2014) positiv, was bedeutet, dass die Investitionen nahezu alle aus dem operativen Cashflow getätigt werden konnten
- Der Free Cashflow deckte in allen bis auf zwei Perioden (2014, 2015) die Ausschüttungen
Durch diese drei Punkte, wird die herausragende finanzielle Stabilität des Unternehmens nochmals bestätigt.
Ein weiterer und vorerst letzter Punkt in diesem Abschnitt beschäftigt sich mit der Kapitalstruktur des Unternehmens. Mit dem Beginn der Datenreihe im Jahr 2006 besaß das Unternehmen eine Eigenkapitalquote von knapp 72% (ohne Minderheiten). Diese wuchs bis 2017 auf knapp 81% an. Die ist auch der Grund, warum die Rentabilitätskennzahlen nicht so hoch ausfallen, wie man das vielleicht erwartet hätte. Es gibt de facto kaum Fremdkapital mit dem man bspw. die Eigenkapitalrentabilität hebeln könnte. Nichtsdestotrotz untrestreicht eine so hohe EK-Quote die finanzielle Stabilität des Unternehmens.
Stärken und Schwächen
Wie bei jedem Unternehmen muss auch dieses Unternehmen auf Stärken und Schwächen untersucht werden.
Die Stärken sehe ich als die folgenden:
- stabiler und stetig steigender Cashflow
- stabile und stetig steigende Gewinne
- Quasi schuldenfrei
- Ausbau der Margen über den Betrachtungszeitraum
- Immenser Burggraben: Auf den Jungfrau Joch fährt genau diese eine Bahn, eine weitere kann nicht gebaut werden. Wenn jemand mit der Bahn auf den Berg fahren möchte, bleibt nur diese Bahn als Beförderungsmittel
- Ausbau des Angebotes
- Tourismus services
- Cross-selling von Aktivitäten
Bei den Schwächen sehe ich diese Punkte
- relativ schwache Rentabilität
- Tourismus ist zyklisch
- Besucher können wegbleiben (nach den Anschlägen in Belgien hat man diesen Effekt bereits gesehen, dass die Besucherzahlen rückgängig waren aufgrund der „Gefahrenlage“
- Beuscherzahlen sind gedeckelt (Irgendwann ist es überlaufen und die Attraktivität nimmt ab)
Die für mich wichtigste Methode um ein Unternehmen quantitativ zu bewerten ist die Discounted Cashflow Methode. Das Ergebnis dieser Methode steht und fällt selbstverständlich mit der Qualität der Eingangsgrößen. Grundsätzlich bewegt man sich in einer großen Unsicherheit, da die Parameter für mehrere Jahre in die Zukunft geschätzt werden müssen und was sagt man so gemeinläufig darüber: „Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen“ (Herkunft nicht ganz geklärt. Entweder von Karl Valenting, Mark Twain oder Niels Bohr). Daher wird man nie ein exaktes Ergebnis des Unternehmenswertes erhalten. Sehr wohl aber eine Annäherung und ein Gefühl dafür, was ein Unternehmen wert sein kann. Bzgl. der Unsicherheit in der Planung sei Euch noch ein Buch nahegelegt, welches ich grandios finde: Der Schwarze Schwan.
Der durchschnittliche Free Cashflow der Jahre 2006 – 2017 liegt knapp unter 20.000 sFr. Dieser ist meine Meinung nach auf Grund der Jahre 2014 / 2015 nach unten verzerrt, sodass ich auf den letzten verfügbaren Freecashflow aufsetzen werde. Dieser betrug 33.837 sFr. Die durschschnittliche Steigerung des Free Cashflows über die Jahre 2006 – 2017 beträgt 5,44%. Diese Steigerung nehme ich für die ersten 10 Jahre an und ab dann folgt eine ewige Rente von 3%.
Der derzeitige Börsenkurs beträgt 116€. Somit liegt der ermittelte Wert ~35% über dem derzeitigen Börsenkurs.
Die Jungfraubahn Holding AG ist ein spannendes Unternehmen in einer mir bislang nicht so sehr bekannten Branche.
Sollte man nun aber investieren?
Die finanzielle Stabilität ist herausragend und das Wachstum ist extrem stetig, wenn gleich nicht auf einem hohen Niveau. Die Cashflows sind ebenso stabil sodass mit der DCF-Methode ein potentieller Wert von 156€ pro Aktie ermittelt wurde. Ich denke, dass man die Umsätze auch zukünftig noch im selben Maße steigern kann, sodass ich Wertermittlung zutreffen könnte. Dies wird auch durch die aufgezeigten Stärken unterstrichen. Das Unternehmen besitzt mit der Bergbahn zum Jungfraujoch in dem Bereich einen wahrlichen Burggraben, den man nicht knacken kann.
Was spricht gegen ein Investment?
Rein bilanziell kann ich nicht viele Makel finden. Das einzige was mich ein wenig stört ist die extrem hohe Eigenkapitalversorgung und die sehr hohe Liquidität. Wenn man beides ein wenig runterfahren würde, wäre die Rentabilität und der Return für die Eigner höher. Grundsätzlich ist es aber ein Tourismusunternehmen was sehr viele Besucher aus Asien hat. In den Jahren 2014/2015 gingen die Besucherzahlen aus Asien aufgrund von Terroranschlägen bereits zurück. So etwas kann natürlich jederzeit wieder vorkommen – oder noch stärker.
Oder auch gar nicht mehr.
Leider kann man nicht in die Zukunft sehen. Ich werde mir demnach noch ein paar Gedanken dazu machen und nun noch keine Entscheidung treffen – ob Invest oder nicht. Vielleicht geht der Gesamtmarkt ja noch ein wenig runter und zieht somit auch solche Qualitätsaktien mit?
Was haltet ihr denn von dem Unternehmen und habe ich was übersehen / Fehler gemacht oder habt ihr eine andere Meinung?
Dieser Artikel dient zur Erläuterung von Value Investing Prinzipien am Beispiel eines Unternehmens. Er stellt keine Anlageberatung dar. Die Investition in Wertpapiere ist mit Risiken verbunden, die bis zum Totalverlust des eingesetzten Kapitals führen kann. Schaut Euch dazu bitte auch meinen Haftungsausschluss an.
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